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James Howard Kunstler writes:
"In the folder marked 'unsustainable' you can file most of the
artifacts, usufructs, habits, and expectations of recent American life:
suburban living, credit-card spending, Happy Motoring, vacations in Las
Vegas and cheap food among them. All these things are over. The public
may suspect as much, but they can't admit it to themselves, and
political leadership has so far declined to speak the truth about it for
them -- in short, to form a useful consensus that will allow us to move
forward effectively." (see below)
"Consumerism"
Is Dead -- Can Obama Lead Us to a
Downscaled Lifestyle?
By James Howard
Kunstler

February 26, 2009
Dear Mr. President, your
assignment is to handle our economic decline in such a
way as to avoid wars, civil
disorder or both.
The public perception of the
ongoing fiasco in governance has moved from sheer, mute incomprehension to
goggle-eyed panic as the scrims of unreality peel away revealing something
like a national death-watch scene in history's intensive care unit. Is the
USA in recession, depression, or collapse? People are at least beginning to
ask. Nature's way of hinting that something truly creepy may be up is when
both Paul Volcker and George Soros both declare on the same day that the
economic landscape is looking darker than the Great Depression.
Those tuned into the media-waves were enchanted, in a related instance, by
Rick Santelli's grand moment of theater in the Chicago trader's pit when he
seemed to ignite the first spark of revolution by demonstrating that
bail-out fatigue had morphed into high emotion -- and that the emotion could
be marshaled against public policy. The traders in the pit on-screen seemed
to color up and buzz loudly, like ordinary grasshoppers turning into angry
locusts preparing to ravage a waiting valley. "Are you listening, President
Obama?" Mr. Santelli asked portentously.
In the broad blogging margins of the web that orbit the mainstream media
like the rings of Saturn, an awful lot of reasonable people have begun to
ask whether President Obama is a stooge of whatever remains of Wall Street,
with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs's puppeteer, Robert Rubin, pulling strings
behind an arras in the Oval Office. Personally, I doubt it, but it is still
a little hard to understand what the President is up to. For one thing, the
stimulus package, so-called, looks more and more like national sub-prime
mortgage itself, a bad bargain made under less-than-realistic terms, with
future obligations fobbed onto whoever inhabits this corner of the world for
the next seven hundred years -- and all to pay for a bunch of granite
counter-tops and flat-screen TVs.
I suppose Mr. Obama is burdened with the knowledge that the economic truth
is so much worse than he imagined back in November that there is simply
nothing to do at this point except pretend to serve up a "tasting menu" of
rescue plans in the hope that markets and mechanisms might be conned back
into compliance with our wish keep getting something-for-nothing forever.
FDR already used the fear of fear itself trope, so Mr. O is left with little
more than displaying pluck and confidence in the face of overwhelming bad
news.
The sad truth is that banking has become a Chinese fire drill -- a frantic
act of futility -- as insolvent companies persist in covering up their
losses in order to avoid the counter-party hell of credit default swaps that
would ring the world's "game over" bell. This can only go on so long. All
the chatter about "nationalizing" the banks really boils down to what kind
of bankruptcy work-out will they be put through, how destructive will the
process be, and how much of the pain can be shoved forward in time to people
now in diapers and their descendants.
Among
the questions that disturb the sleep of many casual observers is how come
Mr. O doesn't get that the conventional process of economic growth -- based,
as it was, on industrial expansion via revolving credit in a
cheap-energy-resource era -- is over, and why does he keep invoking it at
the podium? Dear Mr. President, you are presiding over an epochal
contraction, not a pause in the growth epic. Your assignment is to manage
that contraction in a way that does not lead to world war, civil disorder or
both. Among other things, contraction means that all the activities of
everyday life need to be downscaled including standards of living, ranges of
commerce, and levels of governance. "Consumerism" is dead. Revolving
credit is dead -- at least at the scale that became normal the last thirty
years. The wealth of several future generations has already been spent and
there is no equity left there to re-finance.
If contraction and downscaling are indeed the case, then the better question
is: why don't we get started on it right away instead of flogging rescue
plans to restart something that is DOA? Downscaling the price of over-priced
houses would be a good place to start. This gets to the heart of Rick
Santelli's crowd-stirring moment. Let the chumps and weasels who
over-reached take their lumps and move into rentals. Let the bankers who
parlayed these fraudulent mortgages into investment swindles lose their
jobs, surrender their perks, and maybe even go to jail (if attorney general
Eric Holder can be induced to investigate their deeds). No good will come of
propping up the false values of mis-priced things.
No good, in fact, will come of a campaign to sustain the unsustainable,
which is exactly what the Obama program is starting to look like. In the
folder marked "unsustainable" you can file most of the artifacts, usufructs,
habits, and expectations of recent American life: suburban living,
credit-card spending, Happy Motoring, vacations in Las Vegas and cheap food
among them. All these things are
over. The public may suspect as much,
but they can't admit it to themselves, and political leadership has so far
declined to speak the truth about it for them -- in short, to form a useful
consensus that will allow us to move forward effectively. One of the sad
paradoxes of politics is that democracies do not seem very good at
disciplining their citizens' behavior. The wish to please voters and the
influence of campaign money overwhelm even leaders with mature instincts. In
America's case, this could lead to what I like to call corn-pone Nazism a
few years down the road. Someone will design snazzy uniforms and get us all
marching around to "God Bless America." At the point of a gun.
It's not too late for President Obama to start uttering these truths so that
we can avoid a turn to fascism and get on with the real business of
America's next phase of history -- living locally, working hard at things
that matter, and preserving civilized culture. What a lot of us can see now
staring out of the abyss is a new dark age. I don't think it's necessarily
our destiny to end up that way, but these days we're not doing much to avoid
it.
Kunstler.com
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